Long-Run Identification in a Fractionally Integrated System

We propose an extension of structural fractionally integrated vector autoregressive models that avoids certain undesirable effects on the impulse responses that occur if long-run identification restrictions are imposed. We derive the model’s Granger representation and investigate the effects of long-run restrictions. Simulations illustrate that enforcing integer integration orders can have severe consequences for impulse responses. In a system of U.S. real output and aggregate prices, the effects of structural shocks strongly depend on the specification of the integration orders. In the statistically preferred fractional model, shocks that are typically interpreted as demand disturbances have a very brief influence on GDP. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Age-specific mortality and short-term changes in the standard of living: Sweden, 1751–1859

The response of mortality to short-term changes in real wages is analyzed here not just in its own right but more particularly as an indicator of long-term shifts in the general standard of living. It is hypothesized that the response would have been stronger the lower the standard of living. The relationship between age-specific mortality levels and real-wage series for Sweden 1751–1860 is analyzed using a distributed-lag model and spectral analysis. The results suggest a real shift in the material standard of living during the period.     

Comparison of Confidence Procedures for Type I Censored Exponential Lifetimes

In the model of type I censored exponential lifetimes, coverage probabilities are compared for a number of confidence interval constructions proposed in literature. The coverage probabilities are calculated exactly for sample sizes up to 50 and for different degrees of censoring and different degrees of intended confidence. If not only a fair two-sided coverage is desired, but also fair one-sided coverage's, only few methods are quite satisfactory. A likelihood-based interval and a third root transformation to normality work almost perfectly, but the ²-based method that is perfect under no censoring and under type II censoring can also be advocated.     

The communication industry in economic integration: The case of West Germany

National economies can be viewed as networks of interdependent relations among the firms, industries and sectors that make up the total economic system. Within this economic system. The communication industry plays a central role by providing message and media products and services, i.e. the linking and coordinating infrastructure.Some limited research has been conducted on the nature and importance of the communication industry in the total economic network of a nation. The study reported here, however, represents the first application of currently existing network analysis techniques to this problem on a large-scale basis. The data used for this study represent the interorganizational relationships among 365 West German firms, with a 1970-based stock value of $333,000 or more. Interorganizational linkages are a function of (1) direction of ownership, and (2) magnitude of ownership (percentage of stock owned weighted by the value of the owned firm).The data analysis reveals that there are a number of dominating industrial groups, including a communication industry. The inter-firm relationships of the communication industry have been mapped and measured. The analysis demonstrates that there is relatively little dominance in and widespread integration with other major economic clusters of the economy. These findings are considered as being preliminary since only publically reported data were available, i.e. privately controlled firms are not included in the analysis. A number of measures for connectedness and integrativeness are presented that suggest themselves in addition to the technique of network analysis per se as potential alternative measures. Media scholars as well as economists may want to utilize network analysis as a method to study various forms of economic concentration and ownership in national industries.     

Characterizations of Lorenz curves and income distributions

The purpose of this paper is to propose and justify the use of a few measures of inequality for summarizing the basic information provided by the Lorenz curve. By exploiting the fact that the Lorenz curve can be considered analogous to a cumulative distribution function it is demonstrated that the moments of the Lorenz curve generate a convenient family of inequality measures, called the Lorenz family of inequality measures. In particular, the first few moments, which often capture the essential features of a distribution function, are proposed as the primary quantities for summarizing the information content of the Lorenz curve. Employed together these measures, which include the Gini coefficient, also provide essential information on the shape of the income distribution. Relying on the principle of diminishing transfers it is shown that the Lorenz measures, as opposed to the Atkinson measures, have transfer-sensitivity properties that depend on the shape of the income distribution. Received: 20 July 1998/Accepted: 10 September 1999